This weekend, we have a 13-fight card at Philly on large ESPN. DraftKings has some solid contests and that I look forward to pursuing the huge GPPs. The most important GPP is a $15 buy and $30k goes to 1st place with a total of $500k being paid out. They also have a brand new Qualifier for $175,000. There’ll be 100 qualifiers for that contest and they’ll compete for a $50k first place price and that $175k will be distributed between all 100 admissions that qualify. I won my very first chair into it a few weeks back and I will try to get my 2nd seat this week if at all possible. Those Qualifier only competitions can be actual bankroll suckers so be careful chasing those overly hard. I will probably stick to the very best GPP this week and then throw a handful of entries at that $30 decoration, and then I will likely take a couple shots in the Q. I will also be publishing H2Hs as well as picking up H2Hs throughout the week to get a fantastic quantity of play into cash games.
With that said, let’s get into a few plays I like this week along with my fade of the week:
Cash Game play of the week — Main Event Stack, Justin Gaethje AND Edson Barboza
When I pile a fight in money games I need no less than 100 total points. Ideally much more like 150 or even more, but I’ll take 100-point floor together with all the guaranteed win. With Gaethje fights, we are pretty much locked into that 100+ and we’ve seen his struggles even complete over 200 DK points. He is the best style for accruing DraftKings points and should we use Edson as well, then we’re guaranteed a win and probably 150+ factors. Give me that day. This is the way I will be starting my money lineup and I shall figure out the rest from there. I shall take the loss because we don’t need 6 wins in cash games. 1st place and 5th place get paid exactly the exact same at a 10-man double-up, so I am not shooting first and I would rather play it safer with my cash lineups.
GPP play of the week — Enrique Barzola — $8,200
This isn’t a sneaky play at all but Barzola ought to be a terrific play if he shoots takedowns. In his 5 UFC wins he’s 36 takedowns. That is precisely what we need on DraftKings. Every takedown is 5-points and he can stand up enough to score 100+ points. If he can score over 100 DK points here at $8.2k he is for sure going to win a person $30k. I do expect him to be chalky this week, but he has a lot of scoring possible I’d like to fade the chalk. I will likely be in line with the field on ownership with my lineups, if not overweight.
Underdog drama of the week — Michelle Waterson — $7,600
I enjoy Waterson here since she’s the fighter who will be looking for takedowns in this particular fight. I think she can get a few and she may have the ability to lock up a entry if that is the case. That’s her ceiling in this fight, but I like her for money games due to her floor. I don’t see KK finishing Waterson, so I think we get three complete rounds of scoring out of her. In a loss she could place up 30-40 DK points and in cash games which is fine. I’ll use her in GPPs as well, but I do not believe she submits KK. I’d guess she places up around ~80 DK points in a decision win if she is able to get the victory.
Fade of the week — Sabina Mazo ($8,800)
I’m spreading my exposure out on the majority of the favorites this week at GPPs however Mazo is the one I’m interested at very least. I believe the only way she outscores her $8.8k salary would be by getting another head kick KO. I don’t think that’s quite likely at all and that I feel a decision win is likely for her. I really don’t see her going for almost any takedowns or obtaining many/any knockdowns, therefore that I do not see how she scores highly in a decision triumph. I will have zero lineups using Mazo this week and when I was making 100 lineups I’d still likely full fade . Hopefully it doesn’t burn me, but she’s my fade of this week.
Thank you for reading this and good luck this weekend! If you would like my own full-card breakdown where I breakdown every fight on the card and give my complete DraftKings analysis, as well as all my pick predictions, you’ll find that for only $7.99 at this link below:
(Premium stakes are available at that link as well. I’m 63-41for +210.99 (+$21,099) since May 19th on Premium Plays)
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