There is a lot of cash to be obtained this week on DraftKings including a top prize of $30k in the primary tournament. I’ll be going heavier than normal this week chasing the significant GPP prizes, and I will play less cash games than usual. Here is the first time we have seen a 30k top prize, therefore I think it’s well worth chasing if you have the bankroll for it.
We did lose the co-main occasion with Max Holloway pulling from the struggle against Brian Ortega, thus we are down to 11 fights and we should see a great deal of ties on this card with the more popular lineups. If you’re pursuing that $30K then you will want to attempt to be a little different with your lineup so that you can distinguish yourself from the remainder of the area. That said, let us get into a few plays I enjoy in addition to my fade of this week.
Money Game play of the week — Paul Felder ($7,400)
The DK pricing on this fight is way off from the betting line. On DK, Felder is 1,400 less than his opponent, Mike Perry. On the gambling line, Felder is your -150 favorite. That is just too much line value to pass in cash games and that makes Felder the”free square” this week. Even if he loses this fight, he must be so highly owned that it will not even hurt your lineup in money games. In GPP’s, Felder will be one of the greatest owned fighters on the card and when he loses there then it may kill your lineup, so maybe consider preventing the chalk there if you can. However, with that crazy line value we are getting here, Paul Felder is the easy pick for the cash game play of the week.
GPP play of the week — Mike Perry ($8,800)
Ok, I know this seems a bit weird since I just chose Paul Felder because my money play of the week, but hear me out. In cash games, we don’t care about possession. In case Felder is 90% owned in cash games, then it doesn’t damage your lineup because only 10 percent of lineups did not possess him and you merely need to be top ~50% of the area to cash in cash games. In GPPs, I’m guessing Felder will probably be over 50% owned. When he loses, that is half of the field that is dead without a chance at winning 1st place.
Mike Perry on the other hand will probably be less than 20% owned, and maybe closer to 10% simply due to the mispriced line. If Felder kills and loses off 50% of lineups, then you also get a win using the low owned guy to put you at a far better location of a Royal 1st place win and possibly hitting $30k. Perry has the capability to KO anybody and Paul Felder is carrying this fight on short notice in a weight class above his branch. Would it truly shock you that much if Perry could KO him in this battle? In GPPs, we are interested in finding that boom or bust play and that’s Mike Perry this week which makes him my GPP drama of this week.
Underdog play of this week — Anthony Pettis ($7,600)
Anthony Pettis would have been a -500 favored over Michael Chiesa if this struggle took place 5 years before, but today we get a fading Pettis as an underdog and $1,000 less costly than Chiesa on DraftKings. I believe Pettis can keep this fight standing for most the fight which will give him a huge edge. He is also dangerous on the floor himself and if he’s taken I think he is going to have the ability to get up if he isn’t able to get a submission of his very own. If Pettis can win a determination then I presume he will pay off his DK price tag and will be a good underdog to use so it is possible to save salary in your lineups. I can even find this fight ending from Pettis falling Chiesa using a human body kick and if that happens he will probably be on the winning lineup if he can make it happen in around 1.
Fade of the week — Rafael Assuncao ($9,100)
At $9.1k, I have zero interest in Assuncao this weekend. I do think that he wins the fight, but I do not find him paying that high price tag. He doesn’t fight at a heavy pace and he has not gotten a takedown in his past 4 wins as well as the ground is where he’ll have his main edge in this matchup. In those previous 4 wins, Assuncao has not scored over 78 DK points and in his wages this week I want at least 91 points from him to cover that much. I would rather cover the guys higher priced compared to Assuncao, or even go down to Vannata or even Miocic. I will have at least 20 lineups this weekend and Assuncao will be in 0 of these, which makes him my fade of this week.
Thanks for reading this and decent luck this weekend! If you would like my full-card breakdown where I breakdown every struggle on the card and provide my complete DraftKings analysis, in Addition to all of my pick predictions, you can find that for just $7.99 at this link below:
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